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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-03-10T00:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-03-10T00:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/7956/-1
CME Note: eruption visible in AIA during flare from 2297. Note another CME follows this one, starting at 2015-03-10T03:36Z, also from the same active region. This entry is for both CMEs.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-03-12T12:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2015 Mar 11 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at high levels during the period. Region 2297
(S16E32, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the only active region on the
visible disk, producing an M5/2b flare at 10/0324 UTC, as well as
several low-mid level C-class flares. This region produced another M
flare late yesterday as well. Both M5 flares also had associated Type II
and Type IV radio emissions, with the first Type II showing an estimated
shock velocity of 967 km/s. However, the second Type II was less certain
and did not indicate an estimated shock speed. The M5 flares also had
Tenflare radio bursts associated with them, including a 550 sfu radio
burst and a 130 sfu radio burst, respectively.

Preliminary LASCO C2 imagery indicated that of three recent transients,
the third CME, associated with the first M5 flare, was first observed in
LASCO C2 imagery at 10/0036 UTC and appeared as an asymmetric
partial-halo CME. The second M5 flare, was first visible in LASCO C2
imagery at 10/0336 UTC, and it, too produced an asymmetric [partial-halo
CME. Analysis of these events was completed upon availability of delayed
LASCO data. It appears that a combined impact of these transients may
occur in the form of a glancing blow, mid to late on day two (12 Mar),
with a passage expecting to last 24-36 hours at lower velocities.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Mar 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 11-Mar 13 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 11-Mar 13 2015

            Mar 11     Mar 12     Mar 13
00-03UT        1          2          5 (G1)
03-06UT        3          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        2          2          4     
09-12UT        2          2          4     
12-15UT        1          4          4     
15-18UT        2          4          4     
18-21UT        2          4          3     
21-00UT        2          4          3     

Rationale: G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day three (13
Mar) as the brunt of the CME impacts are expected to begin.

Lead Time: 42.60 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-03-10T17:24Z

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